Economic Uncertainty Builds as Trump Deadline Looms, JOLTS, Auto Sales, and Earnings in Focus
📉 Futures Drift Lower Amid Trade Jitters
U.S. equity futures edged lower Tuesday, extending caution from Monday’s rally as investors weighed mounting trade uncertainty and awaited key economic data:
- Dow Futures: -160 pts (-0.4%)
- S&P 500 Futures: -22 pts (-0.4%)
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -70 pts (-0.3%)
This follows Monday’s modest gains:
- S&P 500: +0.4%
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.7%
- Dow Jones: +0.1%
🌐 Tariff Headlines Dominate Market Sentiment
Markets remain on edge after President Trump reaffirmed plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, heightening fears of inflation and a broader trade standoff with China.
- China pushed back, denying it broke a trade pact and warning it will protect its economic interests.
- The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires in July, with the White House urging trade partners to submit proposals by Wednesday.
- So far, only the U.K. has secured a new trade deal.
Meanwhile, focus is shifting to a controversial tax and spending bill moving through Congress. While Trump claims it’s the “biggest spending cut in history,” economists are warning it could worsen the fiscal deficit and national debt.
📊 Key Economic Reports on Tap
Investors are watching for signs that tariff tensions are affecting labor demand and consumer behavior. On deck:
- JOLTS job openings (April): Expected to tick down to 7.11 million from 7.192 million
- May auto sales: Potential slowdown after a pre-tariff surge in buying
- Friday: Nonfarm payrolls — the most critical data point this week
The OECD has already downgraded U.S. GDP growth to 1.6% for 2025, from 2.2% previously.
💸 Earnings & Flows: DG, NIO, Signet in Focus
Quarterly results from Dollar General (DG), Nio (NIO), and Signet Jewelers (SIG) are due premarket.
Last week, Bank of America reported $2.3B in net equity inflows, led by single-stock buying.
However, Technology stocks saw outflows for the third week in a row, while investors rotated into Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials.
🛢 Oil Rises on Supply Risk
Crude prices climbed modestly after a 3% surge Monday:
- Brent: $64.83 (+0.4%)
- WTI: $62.79 (+0.4%)
Drivers:
- Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear impasse
- Escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions
- OPEC+ sticking to modest 411,000 bpd supply hikes
🔍 Takeaway: Market Poised for Volatility as Policy Uncertainty Returns
The combination of trade stress, fiscal risk, and crucial macro data creates a tricky environment for risk assets this week. Add in worsening geopolitical tensions and sector rotation away from tech, and June could prove choppier than May’s historic rally.
