Market Overview:
- Futures Movement:
- S&P 500 E-Mini (ESU24): Up +0.07%
- Nasdaq 100 E-Mini (NQU24): Up +0.08%
Investors are anticipating U.S. business activity data and the commencement of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which could provide further insights into Federal Reserve policy decisions.
FOMC July Meeting Insights:
- The minutes revealed that several Federal Reserve officials believed there was a “plausible case” for reducing the policy rate due to moderated inflation and slight increases in unemployment. Although no rate cut was made, the discussion suggests a high likelihood of a rate reduction at the next meeting.
- Market Interpretation: Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group suggested that the Fed’s communication strategy implies a September rate cut is almost certain.
Recent Market Performance:
- Top Gainers:
- Keysight Technologies (KEYS): +13% after strong Q3 results.
- Target (TGT): +11% after surpassing Q2 expectations and raising its EPS forecast.
- Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO): +3% with the announcement of a new video game release.
- Top Losers:
- American Express (AXP): -2% following a downgrade.
- Macy’s (M): -13% due to weak Q2 revenue and a downgraded FY24 sales outlook.
Economic Indicators:
- Payroll Revision: The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the U.S. payrolls benchmark down by -818,000 for the year through March, marking the largest downward revision since 2009.
- Rate Cut Probabilities: Current pricing suggests a 69.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 30.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September.
Upcoming Events:
- Jackson Hole Symposium: Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday for insights into the pace and timing of potential rate cuts.
- Earnings Reports: Intuit, Workday, Ross Stores, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Peloton Interactive are set to report their quarterly figures today.
- Key Economic Data:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Expected at 49.5 for August.
- S&P Global Services PMI: Expected at 54.0 for August.
- Existing Home Sales: Forecasted at 3.94M for July.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Estimated at 232K.
Investors are positioning cautiously, awaiting data releases and central bank signals that will shape the market’s direction in the coming days.
