Markets Cheer “Exemption Euphoria,” but Messaging Leaves Room for Doubt
U.S. equity futures are pointing higher in premarket trading after President Trump’s administration appeared to carve out a reprieve for smartphones, semiconductors, and tech hardware from the latest round of 125% tariffs on Chinese goods.
However, mixed messages from top officials suggest this exemption may be temporary or semantic, keeping uncertainty elevated.
🔍 Key Moves as of 5:45 a.m. ET
🧨 Tariff Exemption—or Just Reclassification?
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: Tariff exemptions for key electronics are not permanent, and separate tariffs may come “soon.”
- President Trump contradicted that on social media, saying there is no exemption, only a “re-bucketing” of these products under the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs.
📌 Translation: Some market players view this as a pause, others see smoke and mirrors.
“If there’s a strong, retail-driven gap-up higher open on ‘exemption euphoria,’ it may be the last great selling opportunity of the year.”
— Mike O’Rourke, JonesTrading
🧭 What to Watch Today
- Follow-through: Whether bulls can maintain momentum into the cash open or whether this early bounce fades amid hawkish messaging.
- Bond yields: Watch if yields rebound after last week’s historic volatility.
- Semis and tech hardware: May lead early strength (watch SMH, AAPL, NVDA, AMD).
- Pharma: Could lag if separate tariff risks gain traction (monitor XLV, JNJ, PFE).
🧩 Big Picture
Today’s bounce is more about positioning relief than true resolution. The tariff narrative remains fluid, and with mixed commentary from Trump and top officials, markets are still flying blind. This morning’s rally could be a fade candidate unless more clarity emerges—or if Fed commentary begins to dominate headlines.
